Modelling the spatio-temporal repartition ...
Type de document :
Compte-rendu et recension critique d'ouvrage
Titre :
Modelling the spatio-temporal repartition of right-truncated data: an application to avalanche runout altitudes in Hautes-Savoie
Auteur(s) :
Lavigne, Aurore [Auteur]
Lille économie management - UMR 9221 [LEM]
Eckert, Nicolas [Auteur]
Erosion torrentielle neige et avalanches [UR ETGR (ETNA)]
Bel, Liliane [Auteur]
Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées [MIA-Paris]
Deschâtres, Michaël [Auteur]
Erosion torrentielle neige et avalanches [UR ETGR (ETNA)]
Parent, Éric [Auteur]
Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées [MIA-Paris]
Lille économie management - UMR 9221 [LEM]
Eckert, Nicolas [Auteur]
Erosion torrentielle neige et avalanches [UR ETGR (ETNA)]
Bel, Liliane [Auteur]
Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées [MIA-Paris]
Deschâtres, Michaël [Auteur]
Erosion torrentielle neige et avalanches [UR ETGR (ETNA)]
Parent, Éric [Auteur]
Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées [MIA-Paris]
Titre de la revue :
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
Pagination :
629–644
Éditeur :
Springer Verlag (Germany)
Date de publication :
2017
ISSN :
1436-3240
Mot(s)-clé(s) en anglais :
snow avalanche
Bayesian hierarchical model
geostatistic
truncated data
Bayesian hierarchical model
geostatistic
truncated data
Discipline(s) HAL :
Sciences du Vivant [q-bio]
Résumé en anglais : [en]
In this paper, we propose a novel approach for generating avalanche hazard maps based on the spatial dependence of avalanche runout altitudes. The right-truncated data are described with a Bayesian hierarchical model in ...
Lire la suite >In this paper, we propose a novel approach for generating avalanche hazard maps based on the spatial dependence of avalanche runout altitudes. The right-truncated data are described with a Bayesian hierarchical model in which the spatio-temporal process is assumed to be the sum of independent spatial and temporal terms. Topography is roughly taken into account according to valley altitude and path exposition, and the spatial dependence is modelled with a Matérn covariance function. An application is performed to the Haute-Savoie region, French Alps. A spatial dependence in runout altitudes is identified, and an effective range of about 10 km is inferred. The temporal trend extracted highlights the increase of avalanche runout altitudes from 1955, attributed to both anthropogenic factors and climate warming. In a cross validation scheme, spatial predictions are provided on undocumented paths using kriging equations. All in all, although our model is unable to take into account small topographic features, it is a first-ever approach that produces very encouraging results. It could be enhanced in future work by incorporating a numerical physically-based code into the modelling.Lire moins >
Lire la suite >In this paper, we propose a novel approach for generating avalanche hazard maps based on the spatial dependence of avalanche runout altitudes. The right-truncated data are described with a Bayesian hierarchical model in which the spatio-temporal process is assumed to be the sum of independent spatial and temporal terms. Topography is roughly taken into account according to valley altitude and path exposition, and the spatial dependence is modelled with a Matérn covariance function. An application is performed to the Haute-Savoie region, French Alps. A spatial dependence in runout altitudes is identified, and an effective range of about 10 km is inferred. The temporal trend extracted highlights the increase of avalanche runout altitudes from 1955, attributed to both anthropogenic factors and climate warming. In a cross validation scheme, spatial predictions are provided on undocumented paths using kriging equations. All in all, although our model is unable to take into account small topographic features, it is a first-ever approach that produces very encouraging results. It could be enhanced in future work by incorporating a numerical physically-based code into the modelling.Lire moins >
Langue :
Anglais
Vulgarisation :
Non
Commentaire :
[Departement_IRSTEA]Eaux [TR1_IRSTEA]RIVAGE
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