Individual Uncertainty About Longevity

Dormont, Brigitte; Samson, Anne-Laure; Fleurbaey, Marc; Luchini, Stephane; Schokkaert, Erik

Document type :

Compte-rendu et recension critique d'ouvrage

DOI :

10.1007/s13524-018-0713-4

Title :

Individual Uncertainty About Longevity

Author(s) :

Dormont, Brigitte [Auteur]
Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine [LEDa]
Université Paris Dauphine-PSL
Samson, Anne-Laure [Auteur]
Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine [LEDa]
Lille économie management - UMR 9221 [LEM]
Fleurbaey, Marc [Auteur]
Economic Theory Center
Luchini, Stephane [Auteur]
Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille [GREQAM]
Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques [AMSE]
Schokkaert, Erik [Auteur]
Catholic University of Leuven = Katholieke Universiteit Leuven [KU Leuven]

Journal title :

Demography

Pages :

1829 - 1854

Publisher :

Springer Verlag

Publication date :

2018-10

ISSN :

0070-3370

HAL domain(s) :

Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Economies et finances

English abstract : [en]

This article presents an assessment of individual uncertainty about longevity. A survey performed on 3,331 French people enables us to record several survival probabilities per individual. On this basis, we compute subjective ...
Show more >This article presents an assessment of individual uncertainty about longevity. A survey performed on 3,331 French people enables us to record several survival probabilities per individual. On this basis, we compute subjective life expectancies (SLE) and subjective uncertainty regarding longevity (SUL), the standard deviation of each individual’s subjective distribution of her or his own longevity. It is large and equal to more than 10 years for men and women. Its magnitude is comparable to the variability of longevity observed in life tables for individuals under 60, but it is smaller for those older than 60, which suggests use of private information by older respondents. Our econometric analysis confirms that individuals use private information—mainly their parents’ survival and longevity—to adjust their level of uncertainty. Finally, we find that SUL has a sizable impact, in addition to SLE, on risky behaviors: more uncertainty on longevity significantly decreases the probability of unhealthy lifestyles. Given that individual uncertainty about longevity affects prevention behavior, retirement decisions, and demand for long-term care insurance, these results have important implications for public policy concerning health care and retirement.Show less >

Language :

Anglais

Popular science :

Non

ANR Project :

LABEX Finance & Croissance Durable

Collections :

Lille Économie Management (LEM) - UMR 9221

Source :

Harvested from HAL

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