Judgmental forecast adjustments over ...
Document type :
Compte-rendu et recension critique d'ouvrage
Title :
Judgmental forecast adjustments over different time horizons
Author(s) :
Van Den Broeke, Maud [Auteur]
Lille économie management - UMR 9221 [LEM]
de Baets, Shari [Auteur]
Vereecke, Ann [Auteur]
Baecke, Philippe [Auteur]
Vanderheyden, Karlien [Auteur]
Lille économie management - UMR 9221 [LEM]
de Baets, Shari [Auteur]
Vereecke, Ann [Auteur]
Baecke, Philippe [Auteur]
Vanderheyden, Karlien [Auteur]
Journal title :
Omega
Pages :
34-45
Publisher :
Elsevier
Publication date :
2019-09
ISSN :
0305-0483
English keyword(s) :
Judgmental forecasting
Empirical analysis
Time horizon
Operations
Empirical analysis
Time horizon
Operations
HAL domain(s) :
Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Gestion et management
English abstract : [en]
Accurate demand forecasting is the cornerstone of a firm’s operations. The statistical system forecasts are often judgmentally adjusted by forecasters who believe their knowledge can improve the final forecasts. While ...
Show more >Accurate demand forecasting is the cornerstone of a firm’s operations. The statistical system forecasts are often judgmentally adjusted by forecasters who believe their knowledge can improve the final forecasts. While empirical research on judgmental forecast adjustments has been increasing, an important aspect is under-studied: the impact of these adjustments over different time horizons. Collecting data from 8 business cases, retrieving over 307,200 forecast adjustments, this work assesses how the characteristics (e.g., size and direction) and accuracy of consecutive adjustments change over different time horizons. We find that closer to the sales point, the number of adjustments increases and adjustments become larger and more positive; and that adjustments, both close and distant from the sales point, can deteriorate the final forecast accuracy. We discuss how these insights impact operational activities, such as production planning.Show less >
Show more >Accurate demand forecasting is the cornerstone of a firm’s operations. The statistical system forecasts are often judgmentally adjusted by forecasters who believe their knowledge can improve the final forecasts. While empirical research on judgmental forecast adjustments has been increasing, an important aspect is under-studied: the impact of these adjustments over different time horizons. Collecting data from 8 business cases, retrieving over 307,200 forecast adjustments, this work assesses how the characteristics (e.g., size and direction) and accuracy of consecutive adjustments change over different time horizons. We find that closer to the sales point, the number of adjustments increases and adjustments become larger and more positive; and that adjustments, both close and distant from the sales point, can deteriorate the final forecast accuracy. We discuss how these insights impact operational activities, such as production planning.Show less >
Language :
Anglais
Popular science :
Non
Collections :
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