Title :

Economic conditions and confidence: Do changes in the consumption level affect the dynamics of confidence?

Author(s) :

Vaillant, Nicolas [Auteur]
Experience ; Technology & Human Interactions ; Care & Society : [ETHICS EA 7446]
Flambard, Véronique [Auteur]
Institut Catholique de Lille [ICL]
Université Catholique de Lille - Faculté de gestion, économie et sciences [UCL FGES]
Lille économie management - UMR 9221 [LEM]

Journal title :

Economics Bulletin

Pages :

21-29

Publisher :

Economics Bulletin

Publication date :

2015-03-11

ISSN :

1545-2921

HAL domain(s) :

Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Economies et finances

English abstract : [en]

People are consumers and voters. Their sentiment about the economy and the competence of their leaders determine their confidence level. This research note investigates whether economic conditions measured by changes in ...
Show more >People are consumers and voters. Their sentiment about the economy and the competence of their leaders determine their confidence level. This research note investigates whether economic conditions measured by changes in the recent consumption level modify the dynamics of confidence formation. Using French monthly economic and political data (from May 1988 to April 2010), we test this assumption with a threshold vector autoregression model. We show that changes in consumption do not alter the strength or direction of causality between consumer sentiment and political confidence. There is no evident effect of the state of the economy on confidence dynamics. It does not require special treatments by forecasters everything else equal.Show less >

Language :

Anglais

Popular science :

Non

Collections :

• Lille Économie Management (LEM) - UMR 9221

Source :

Harvested from HAL