Disentangling political and institutional ...
Document type :
Compte-rendu et recension critique d'ouvrage
Title :
Disentangling political and institutional determinants of budget forecast errors: A comparative approach
Author(s) :
Journal title :
Journal of Comparative Economics
Publisher :
Elsevier
Publication date :
2018-04
ISSN :
0147-5967
English keyword(s) :
Fiscal forecasting
Opportunism
Elections
Institutions
Local governments
France
Portugal
Opportunism
Elections
Institutions
Local governments
France
Portugal
HAL domain(s) :
Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Economies et finances
English abstract : [en]
This paper provides a unique comparison between French and Portuguese local governments with respect to the nature and determinants of budget forecast errors. It starts by documenting and comparing their statistical ...
Show more >This paper provides a unique comparison between French and Portuguese local governments with respect to the nature and determinants of budget forecast errors. It starts by documenting and comparing their statistical properties. The results point at biased and inefficient budget forecasts, which seem to have been more cautious in French departments than in Portuguese municipalities. Second, we examine the political, institutional and economic determinants of forecast biases. Overall, we find that they are essentially driven by electoral motivations and by institutional differences across the two countries. In particular, opportunistic forecasting is more prevalent where governments enjoy greater margin of maneuver, and there is evidence of conservatism in French departments where fiscal autonomy is greater.Show less >
Show more >This paper provides a unique comparison between French and Portuguese local governments with respect to the nature and determinants of budget forecast errors. It starts by documenting and comparing their statistical properties. The results point at biased and inefficient budget forecasts, which seem to have been more cautious in French departments than in Portuguese municipalities. Second, we examine the political, institutional and economic determinants of forecast biases. Overall, we find that they are essentially driven by electoral motivations and by institutional differences across the two countries. In particular, opportunistic forecasting is more prevalent where governments enjoy greater margin of maneuver, and there is evidence of conservatism in French departments where fiscal autonomy is greater.Show less >
Language :
Anglais
Popular science :
Non
Collections :
Source :
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