Titre :

Disentangling political and institutional determinants of budget forecast errors: A comparative approach

Auteur(s) :

Boukari, Mamadou [Auteur]
Lille économie management - UMR 9221 [LEM]
Veiga, Francisco José [Auteur]

Titre de la revue :

Journal of Comparative Economics

Éditeur :

Elsevier

Date de publication :

2018-04

ISSN :

0147-5967

Mot(s)-clé(s) en anglais :

Fiscal forecasting
Opportunism
Elections
Institutions
Local governments
France
Portugal

Discipline(s) HAL :

Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Economies et finances

Résumé en anglais : [en]

This paper provides a unique comparison between French and Portuguese local governments with respect to the nature and determinants of budget forecast errors. It starts by documenting and comparing their statistical ...
Lire la suite >This paper provides a unique comparison between French and Portuguese local governments with respect to the nature and determinants of budget forecast errors. It starts by documenting and comparing their statistical properties. The results point at biased and inefficient budget forecasts, which seem to have been more cautious in French departments than in Portuguese municipalities. Second, we examine the political, institutional and economic determinants of forecast biases. Overall, we find that they are essentially driven by electoral motivations and by institutional differences across the two countries. In particular, opportunistic forecasting is more prevalent where governments enjoy greater margin of maneuver, and there is evidence of conservatism in French departments where fiscal autonomy is greater.Lire moins >

Langue :

Anglais

Vulgarisation :

Non

Collections :

• Lille Économie Management (LEM) - UMR 9221

Source :

Harvested from HAL