Titre :

Drivers and Forecasting Inflation for Agreement Agadir Countries

Auteur(s) :

Dahem, Ahlem [Auteur]
Saïdane, Dhafer [Auteur]
Lille - Economie et Management [LEM]

Titre de la revue :

Journal of World Economic Research

Pagination :

33

Date de publication :

2014

Mot(s)-clé(s) en anglais :

Monetary Policy
Inflation Drivers
Inflation Forecasting
Monetary Model
Mark-Up Model
Phillips Curve

Discipline(s) HAL :

Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Economies et finances

Résumé en anglais : [en]

The question of the determination of effective forecasting models, for macroeconomic variables, is still considered crucial for the monetary authorities. On the academic side, the interest aroused by this issue in international ...
Lire la suite >The question of the determination of effective forecasting models, for macroeconomic variables, is still considered crucial for the monetary authorities. On the academic side, the interest aroused by this issue in international economics has been a subject of major debate at the center of the recent literature. This last demonstrate that predictions are crucial for the conduct of monetary policy. In order to find inflation divers and powerful models to explain clearly the dynamic of prices and inflation forecasting, this research gives special importance to inflation forecasting and represents an empirical comparison test of three models for predicting the inflation in the case of the countries of the Agadir Agreement of 2007 (Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, Jordan) : the mark-up model, the monetary model and the Phillips curve through two econometric approaches: individual time series and panel data over the period 1990 – 2013. For comparison of prevision, we used the structural break test Bai and Perron (2003) and the RMSE criterion. We show that the mark-up model is the best suited for forecasting inflation and our results confirm our expectations.Lire moins >

Langue :

Anglais

Comité de lecture :

Oui

Audience :

Non spécifiée

Vulgarisation :

Non

Collections :

• Lille Économie Management (LEM) - UMR 9221

Source :

Harvested from HAL