Title :

Predictive ecology in a changing world

Author(s) :

Mouquet, Nicolas [Auteur]
Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier [UMR ISEM]
Lagadeuc, Yvan [Auteur]
Ecosystèmes, biodiversité, évolution [Rennes] [ECOBIO]
Devictor, Vincent [Auteur]
Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier [UMR ISEM]
Doyen, Luc [Auteur]
Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée [GREThA]
Duputié, Anne [Auteur]
Évolution, Écologie et Paléontologie (Evo-Eco-Paleo) - UMR 8198 [Evo-Eco-Paléo (EEP)]
Eveillard, Damien [Auteur]
Laboratoire d'Informatique de Nantes Atlantique [LINA]
Faure, Denis [Auteur]
Institut de Biologie Intégrative de la Cellule [I2BC]
Garnier, Eric [Auteur]
Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive [CEFE]
Gimenez, Olivier [Auteur]
Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive [CEFE]
Huneman, Philippe [Auteur]
Institut d'Histoire et de Philosophie des Sciences et des Techniques [IHPST]
Jabot, Franck [Auteur]
Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture [IRSTEA]
Jarne, Philippe [Auteur]
Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive [CEFE]
Joly, Dominique [Auteur]
Laboratoire Evolution, Génomes et Spéciation [LEGS]
Julliard, Romain [Auteur]
Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle [MNHN]
Kéfi, Sonia [Auteur]
Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier [UMR ISEM]
Kergoat, Gael [Auteur]
Centre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations [UMR CBGP]
Lavorel, Sandra [Auteur]
Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine [LECA]
Station alpine Joseph Fourier - UMS 3370 [SAJF]
Le Gall, Line [Auteur]
Institut de Systématique, Evolution, Biodiversité [ISYEB ]
Meslin, Laurence [Auteur]
Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier [UMR ISEM]
Morand, Serge [Auteur]
Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier [UMR ISEM]
Morin, Xavier [Auteur]
Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive [CEFE]
Morlon, Hélène [Auteur]
Institut de biologie de l'ENS Paris [IBENS]
Pinay, Gilles [Auteur]
Ecosystèmes, biodiversité, évolution [Rennes] [ECOBIO]
Pradel, Roger [Auteur]
Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive [CEFE]
Schurr, F. M. [Auteur]
Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier [UMR ISEM]
University of Hohenheim
Thuiller, Wilfried [Auteur]
Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine [LECA]
Loreau, Michel [Auteur]
Station d’Ecologie Expérimentale du CNRS à Moulis [SEEM]

Journal title :

Journal of Applied Ecology

Pages :

1293-1310

Publisher :

Wiley

Publication date :

2015

ISSN :

0021-8901

English keyword(s) :

forecast
modelling
global change
theory
anticipation
big data
biodiversity
ecological prediction
ecosystems
ethics

HAL domain(s) :

Sciences du Vivant [q-bio]/Génétique/Génétique des populations [q-bio.PE]

English abstract : [en]

1. In a rapidly changing world, ecology has the potential to move from empirical and conceptual stages to application and management issues. It is now possible to make large-scale predictions up to continental or global ...
Show more >1. In a rapidly changing world, ecology has the potential to move from empirical and conceptual stages to application and management issues. It is now possible to make large-scale predictions up to continental or global scales, ranging from the future distribution of biological diversity to changes in ecosystem functioning and services. With these recent developments, ecology has a historical opportunity to become a major actor in the development of a sustainable human society. With this opportunity, however, also comes an important responsibility in developing appropriate predictive models, correctly interpreting their outcomes and communicating their limitations. There is also a danger that predictions grow faster than our understanding of ecological systems, resulting in a gap between the scientists generating the predictions and stakeholders using them (conservation biologists, environmental managers, journalists, policymakers).2. Here, we use the context provided by the current surge of ecological predictions on the future of biodiversity to clarify what prediction means, and to pinpoint the challenges that should be addressed in order to improve predictive ecological models and the way they areunderstood and used. 3. Synthesis and applications. Ecologists face several challenges to ensure the healthy development of an operational predictive ecological science: (i) clarity on the distinction between explanatory and anticipatory predictions; (ii) developing new theories at the interface betweenexplanatory and anticipatory predictions; (iii) open data to test and validate predictions; (iv) making predictions operational; and (v) developing a genuine ethics of prediction.Show less >

Language :

Anglais

Peer reviewed article :

Oui

Audience :

Internationale

Popular science :

Non

ANR Project :

Université Fédérale de Toulouse

Collections :

• Évolution, Écologie et Paléontologie (Evo Eco Paleo) - UMR 8198

Source :

Harvested from HAL