On an interval prediction of COVID-19 development based on a SEIR epidemic model

Efimov, Denis; Ushirobira, Rosane

Document type :

Article dans une revue scientifique

DOI :

10.1016/j.arcontrol.2021.01.006

Title :

On an interval prediction of COVID-19 development based on a SEIR epidemic model

Author(s) :

Efimov, Denis [Auteur]

Finite-time control and estimation for distributed systems [VALSE]
Ushirobira, Rosane [Auteur]
Finite-time control and estimation for distributed systems [VALSE]

Journal title :

Annual Reviews in Control

Publisher :

Elsevier

Publication date :

2021

ISSN :

1367-5788

English keyword(s) :

COVID-19
Epidemic model
Parameter identification
Interval predictor

HAL domain(s) :

Sciences de l'ingénieur [physics]/Automatique / Robotique

English abstract : [en]

In this paper, a new version of the well-known epidemic mathematical SEIR model is used to analyze the pandemic course of COVID-19 in eight different countries. One of the proposed model’s improvements is to reflect the ...
Show more >In this paper, a new version of the well-known epidemic mathematical SEIR model is used to analyze the pandemic course of COVID-19 in eight different countries. One of the proposed model’s improvements is to reflect the societal feedback on the disease and confinement features. The SEIR model parameters are allowed to be time-varying, and the ranges of their values are identified by using publicly available data for France, Italy, Spain, Germany, Brazil, Russia, New York State (US), and China. The identi- fied model is then applied to predict the SARS-CoV-2 virus propagation under various conditions of confinement. For this purpose, an interval predictor is designed, allowing variations and uncertainties in the model parameters to be taken into account. The code and the utilized data are available on Github.Show less >

Language :

Anglais

Peer reviewed article :

Oui

Audience :

Internationale

Popular science :

Non

Collections :

Centre de Recherche en Informatique, Signal et Automatique de Lille (CRIStAL) - UMR 9189

Source :

Harvested from HAL

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