Title :

How much do we learn? Measuring symmetric and asymmetric deviations from Bayesian updating through choices

Author(s) :

Aydogan, Ilke [Auteur]
Lille économie management - UMR 9221 [LEM]
IÉSEG School Of Management [Puteaux]
Baillon, Aurélien [Auteur]
Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne [GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne]
EMLyon Business School [EM]
Kemel, Emmanuel [Auteur]
Groupement de Recherche et d'Etudes en Gestion [GREGHEC ]
Li, Chen [Auteur]
Erasmus University Rotterdam

Journal title :

Quantitative Economics

Pages :

329-365 p.

Publisher :

Christopher Taber

Publication date :

2025-01-01

ISSN :

1759-7323

English keyword(s) :

Non-Bayesian updating
conservatism
confirmatory bias
perceived signals
belief elicitation

HAL domain(s) :

Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Economies et finances
Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Gestion et management

English abstract : [en]

Belief‐updating biases hinder the correction of inaccurate beliefs and lead to suboptimal decisions. We complement Rabin and Schrag's (1999) portable extension of the Bayesian model by including conservatism in addition ...
Show more >Belief‐updating biases hinder the correction of inaccurate beliefs and lead to suboptimal decisions. We complement Rabin and Schrag's (1999) portable extension of the Bayesian model by including conservatism in addition to confirmatory bias. Additionally, we show how to identify these two forms of biases from choices. In an experiment, we found that the subjects exhibited confirmatory bias by misreading 19% of the signals that contradicted their priors. They were also conservative and acted as if they missed 28% of the signals.<br/>Show less >

Language :

Anglais

Peer reviewed article :

Oui

Audience :

Internationale

Popular science :

Non

Collections :

• Lille Économie Management (LEM) - UMR 9221

Source :

Harvested from HAL

Submission date :

2025-02-25T03:01:20Z