Titre :

Phenological plasticity will not help all species adapt to climate change

Auteur(s) :

Duputié, Anne [Auteur]
Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive [CEFE]
Évolution, Écologie et Paléontologie (Evo-Eco-Paleo) - UMR 8198 [Evo-Eco-Paléo (EEP)]
Rutschmann, Alexis [Auteur]
Station d’Ecologie Expérimentale du CNRS à Moulis [SEEM]
Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive [CEFE]
Ronce, Ophélie [Auteur]
Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier [UMR ISEM]
Chuine, Isabelle [Auteur]
Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive [CEFE]

Titre de la revue :

GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Pagination :

3062-3073

Éditeur :

Wiley

Date de publication :

2015

ISSN :

1354-1013

Mot(s)-clé(s) en anglais :

climate change
climatic niche
European beech
phenology
Scots pine
sessile oak
species distribution model

Discipline(s) HAL :

Sciences du Vivant [q-bio]/Génétique/Génétique des populations [q-bio.PE]

Résumé en anglais : [en]

Concerns are rising about the capacity of species to adapt quickly enough to climate change. In long-lived organismssuch as trees, genetic adaptation is slow, and how much phenotypic plasticity can help them cope with ...
Lire la suite >Concerns are rising about the capacity of species to adapt quickly enough to climate change. In long-lived organismssuch as trees, genetic adaptation is slow, and how much phenotypic plasticity can help them cope with climatechange remains largely unknown. Here, we assess whether, where and when phenological plasticity is and will beadaptive in three major European tree species. We use a process-based species distribution model, parameterizedwith extensive ecological data, and manipulate plasticity to suppress phenological variations due to interannual, geo-graphical and trend climate variability, under current and projected climatic conditions. We show that phenologicalplasticity is not always adaptive and mostly affects fitness at the margins of the species’ distribution and climaticniche. Under current climatic conditions, phenological plasticity constrains the northern range limit of oak and beechand the southern range limit of pine. Under future climatic conditions, phenological plasticity becomes stronglyadaptive towards the trailing edges of beech and oak, but severely constrains the range and niche of pine. Our resultscall for caution when interpreting geographical variation in trait means as adaptive, and strongly point towards spe-cies distribution models explicitly taking phenotypic plasticity into account when forecasting species distributionunder climate change scenarios.Lire moins >

Langue :

Anglais

Comité de lecture :

Oui

Audience :

Internationale

Vulgarisation :

Non

Collections :

• Évolution, Écologie et Paléontologie (Evo Eco Paleo) - UMR 8198

Source :

Harvested from HAL