Judgmental forecast adjustments over ...
Type de document :
Compte-rendu et recension critique d'ouvrage
Titre :
Judgmental forecast adjustments over different time horizons
Auteur(s) :
Van Den Broeke, Maud [Auteur]
Lille économie management - UMR 9221 [LEM]
de Baets, Shari [Auteur]
Vereecke, Ann [Auteur]
Baecke, Philippe [Auteur]
Vanderheyden, Karlien [Auteur]
Lille économie management - UMR 9221 [LEM]
de Baets, Shari [Auteur]
Vereecke, Ann [Auteur]
Baecke, Philippe [Auteur]
Vanderheyden, Karlien [Auteur]
Titre de la revue :
Omega
Pagination :
34-45
Éditeur :
Elsevier
Date de publication :
2019-09
ISSN :
0305-0483
Mot(s)-clé(s) en anglais :
Judgmental forecasting
Empirical analysis
Time horizon
Operations
Empirical analysis
Time horizon
Operations
Discipline(s) HAL :
Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Gestion et management
Résumé en anglais : [en]
Accurate demand forecasting is the cornerstone of a firm’s operations. The statistical system forecasts are often judgmentally adjusted by forecasters who believe their knowledge can improve the final forecasts. While ...
Lire la suite >Accurate demand forecasting is the cornerstone of a firm’s operations. The statistical system forecasts are often judgmentally adjusted by forecasters who believe their knowledge can improve the final forecasts. While empirical research on judgmental forecast adjustments has been increasing, an important aspect is under-studied: the impact of these adjustments over different time horizons. Collecting data from 8 business cases, retrieving over 307,200 forecast adjustments, this work assesses how the characteristics (e.g., size and direction) and accuracy of consecutive adjustments change over different time horizons. We find that closer to the sales point, the number of adjustments increases and adjustments become larger and more positive; and that adjustments, both close and distant from the sales point, can deteriorate the final forecast accuracy. We discuss how these insights impact operational activities, such as production planning.Lire moins >
Lire la suite >Accurate demand forecasting is the cornerstone of a firm’s operations. The statistical system forecasts are often judgmentally adjusted by forecasters who believe their knowledge can improve the final forecasts. While empirical research on judgmental forecast adjustments has been increasing, an important aspect is under-studied: the impact of these adjustments over different time horizons. Collecting data from 8 business cases, retrieving over 307,200 forecast adjustments, this work assesses how the characteristics (e.g., size and direction) and accuracy of consecutive adjustments change over different time horizons. We find that closer to the sales point, the number of adjustments increases and adjustments become larger and more positive; and that adjustments, both close and distant from the sales point, can deteriorate the final forecast accuracy. We discuss how these insights impact operational activities, such as production planning.Lire moins >
Langue :
Anglais
Vulgarisation :
Non
Collections :
Source :