Titre :

How much do we learn? Measuring symmetric and asymmetric deviations from Bayesian updating through choices

Auteur(s) :

Aydogan, Ilke [Auteur]
Lille économie management - UMR 9221 [LEM]
IÉSEG School Of Management [Puteaux]
Baillon, Aurélien [Auteur]
Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne [GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne]
EMLyon Business School [EM]
Kemel, Emmanuel [Auteur]
Groupement de Recherche et d'Etudes en Gestion [GREGHEC ]
Li, Chen [Auteur]
Erasmus University Rotterdam

Titre de la revue :

Quantitative Economics

Pagination :

329-365 p.

Éditeur :

Christopher Taber

Date de publication :

2025-01-01

ISSN :

1759-7323

Mot(s)-clé(s) en anglais :

Non-Bayesian updating
conservatism
confirmatory bias
perceived signals
belief elicitation

Discipline(s) HAL :

Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Economies et finances
Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Gestion et management

Résumé en anglais : [en]

Belief‐updating biases hinder the correction of inaccurate beliefs and lead to suboptimal decisions. We complement Rabin and Schrag's (1999) portable extension of the Bayesian model by including conservatism in addition ...
Lire la suite >Belief‐updating biases hinder the correction of inaccurate beliefs and lead to suboptimal decisions. We complement Rabin and Schrag's (1999) portable extension of the Bayesian model by including conservatism in addition to confirmatory bias. Additionally, we show how to identify these two forms of biases from choices. In an experiment, we found that the subjects exhibited confirmatory bias by misreading 19% of the signals that contradicted their priors. They were also conservative and acted as if they missed 28% of the signals.<br/>Lire moins >

Langue :

Anglais

Comité de lecture :

Oui

Audience :

Internationale

Vulgarisation :

Non

Collections :

• Lille Économie Management (LEM) - UMR 9221

Source :

Harvested from HAL

Date de dépôt :

2025-02-25T03:01:20Z